"Yes we can" has been the political catchphrase of the Barack Obama campaign for over two years now, and what uplifting words these are. Yes we can - make a better world, yes we can - restore dignity to the people of this planet and yes we can - make a difference. But No We Can't if we continue to see our planet as an inexhaustible resource for the sole use of just one species, humanity.
The science is clear, we have moved beyond the carrying capacity of our planet and we did this first way back in 1985 when humans moved beyond one planet living. We are now consuming the resources of three planets and we still assume that we can continue to do this forever. No we can't.
Our economic system has crashed and perhaps this failure reflects this planetary deficit. Our childish belief that economic growth can continue indefinitely within a planet of limited resources has proven itself an unworkable fantasy and this is now being reflected in the collapse of our globalised economic system.
Traditionally, economists have presumed the economic processes to be an endless cycle of production and consumption, an infinite cycle of economic growth. But this economic theory has also ignored three fundamental laws of nature, the laws of thermodynamics. These inconvenient laws of nature when applied to our economic system show clearly that infinite growth is an impossibility and as long as we continue to exclude these natural laws from our economic system we are operating a fatally flawed economic process that has the potential to destroy us.
Economic activity is traditionally measured by means of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). GDP is a simple measurement that calculates the total market value of all final goods and services produced in a country in a given year. Polluting a river increases GDP because we spend money trying to clean it up. Sitting in a traffic jam burning petrol and releasing greenhouse gases increases GDP, and if somebody attacks you on the street and you spend money in a hospital recovering from your assault you are increasing GDP. In fact all economic activity, be it positive or negative for human society, is measured by the GDP indicator and we call this progress.
Everywhere we look our society is crashing up against the limits of nature. Rates of extinction are accelerating, our climate is changing and resources are running out. In October of 2008 the International Energy Agency in its International Energy Outlook 2008 announced that the world's 800 largest oilfields are in "accelerating decline" and that current global energy use is "patently unsustainable" socially, economically and environmentally. In simple terms this means we will have less energy entering our economic system from here on in.
If the story of peak oil is true then humanity is facing into an era of contraction. According to some geologists this contraction will unfold at a rate of about 3% per year, year-on-year. It may well be that our current economic crisis will be remembered as the first marker on this global economic contraction. In order to understand this paradigm shift we need to think of this contraction as being the mirror opposite of the growth that happened over the last 100 years. This contraction in economic and social systems will most likely require significant readjustment and a change in our expectations. Our society may well be undergoing this change and how it will unfold no one really knows. One thing's for sure though, ignoring nature as an integral part of our economic system has been a fundamental mistake to up to now and if we continue to do this, we do so at our peril.
So can we change? I believe we can because we must. We can no longer ignore the very obvious fact that our society and economy are inextricably linked to the health of our planet. So yes we can change and yes we must change, but No we can't continue to ignore nature as we have done before.
